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It appears DT Gerald McCoy’s tenure with the Bucs is coming to a close. The fan base remains largely divided about his departure and his contributions to the team. His career with the Bucs has been successful on the individual level: he’s seen six Pro Bowls, reached the NFL Top 100 five years in a row, recorded 54.5 sacks over his career. He should be proud of his accomplishments. But at the end of the day, the only thing that matters in the NFL are the W’s, and they have been severely lacking in Tampa.
Our favorite Bucs podcaster Ian Beckles asked last week to see the numbers: Is the team better with or without McCoy? We have the answer: Yes and No.
From 2010-2018 the Bucs have played 144 games. Gerald McCoy has played in 123 of those games. That comes out to about 85% games played to 15% games missed. This does not count games he left during the game.
He has 54.5 sacks in 123 games = 1 sack every 2.26 games.
In games that Gerald McCoy has played in over his entire career with the Bucs, the team has gone 46-77 (37% win percentage).
In games that Gerald McCoy has NOT played in, the Bucs have gone 6-15 (29% win percentage).
That is an 8% advantage with McCoy.
This seems to indicate that the Bucs play better with McCoy. They have won 37% of the time when McCoy plays, but have only won 29% of the time when McCoy does not play.
However, the 2011 season greatly skews the stats. In 2011 the team went 3-3 with McCoy BUT 1-9 without him. Recall if you will, this is the final season of Raheem Morris’s regime when the team imploded on the plane to London. McCoy missed the final 10 games of the season that year with injuries.
Removing the 2011 season from the equation, the Bucs have gone 5-6 (45% win percentage) without McCoy while going 43-74 (37% win percentage) with him.
That is an 8% advantage NOT having McCoy.
From 2015-2018 the Bucs have gone 3-2 without McCoy (60% win percentage) while going 22-37 (37% win percentage) with him. So, in the past four years, the Bucs have increased their win percentage by 23% without McCoy.
Fans on both sides of the aisle will read into it what they will. Stats are funny like that. We will leave it to the reader to make their own determination about the efficacy of Gerald McCoy on the field.
